Brexit

Jian Shun | Sep 19, 2022

Brexit plot

## Rows: 632
## Columns: 11
## $ Seat        <chr> "Aldershot", "Aldridge-Brownhills", "Altrincham and Sale W…
## $ con_2015    <dbl> 50.6, 52.0, 53.0, 44.0, 60.8, 22.4, 52.5, 22.1, 50.7, 53.0…
## $ lab_2015    <dbl> 18.3, 22.4, 26.7, 34.8, 11.2, 41.0, 18.4, 49.8, 15.1, 21.3…
## $ ld_2015     <dbl> 8.82, 3.37, 8.38, 2.98, 7.19, 14.83, 5.98, 2.42, 10.62, 5.…
## $ ukip_2015   <dbl> 17.87, 19.62, 8.01, 15.89, 14.44, 21.41, 18.82, 21.76, 19.…
## $ leave_share <dbl> 57.9, 67.8, 38.6, 65.3, 49.7, 70.5, 59.9, 61.8, 51.8, 50.3…
## $ born_in_uk  <dbl> 83.1, 96.1, 90.5, 97.3, 93.3, 97.0, 90.5, 90.7, 87.0, 88.8…
## $ male        <dbl> 49.9, 48.9, 48.9, 49.2, 48.0, 49.2, 48.5, 49.2, 49.5, 49.5…
## $ unemployed  <dbl> 3.64, 4.55, 3.04, 4.26, 2.47, 4.74, 3.69, 5.11, 3.39, 2.93…
## $ degree      <dbl> 13.87, 9.97, 28.60, 9.34, 18.78, 6.09, 13.12, 7.90, 17.80,…
## $ age_18to24  <dbl> 9.41, 7.33, 6.44, 7.75, 5.73, 8.21, 7.82, 8.94, 7.56, 7.61…
(#tab:brexit_challenge)Data summary
Name brexit_results
Number of rows 632
Number of columns 11
_______________________
Column type frequency:
character 1
numeric 10
________________________
Group variables None

Variable type: character

skim_variable n_missing complete_rate min max empty n_unique whitespace
Seat 0 1 4 43 0 632 0

Variable type: numeric

skim_variable n_missing complete_rate mean sd p0 p25 p50 p75 p100 hist
con_2015 0 1.00 36.60 16.22 0.00 22.09 40.85 50.84 65.88 ▂▅▃▇▅
lab_2015 0 1.00 32.30 16.54 0.00 17.67 31.20 44.37 81.30 ▆▇▇▅▁
ld_2015 0 1.00 7.81 8.36 0.00 2.97 4.58 8.57 51.49 ▇▁▁▁▁
ukip_2015 0 1.00 13.10 6.47 0.00 9.19 13.73 17.11 44.43 ▃▇▃▁▁
leave_share 0 1.00 52.06 11.44 20.48 45.33 53.69 60.15 75.65 ▂▂▆▇▂
born_in_uk 0 1.00 88.15 11.29 40.73 86.42 92.48 95.42 98.02 ▁▁▁▂▇
male 0 1.00 49.07 0.80 46.86 48.61 49.02 49.43 53.05 ▁▇▃▁▁
unemployed 0 1.00 4.37 1.42 1.84 3.23 4.19 5.21 9.53 ▆▇▅▂▁
degree 59 0.91 16.71 8.36 5.10 10.79 14.69 19.59 51.10 ▇▆▂▁▁
age_18to24 0 1.00 9.29 3.59 5.73 7.30 8.28 9.60 32.68 ▇▁▁▁▁

Analysis:

The plot shows several interesting patterns. Generalizing conclusions should made cautiously which is why especially the relationship of the parliament constituencies’ share of votes for the labour and/or conservative party and the corresponding leave share votes should not be over interpreted. However, the stronger trends for the Liberal Democrats as well as the Independent Party may show some interesting tendencies. While parliament constituencies in which the vote share for the Liberal Democrats was relatively low showed above 50% vote shares for Brexit, this vote share quickly depletes as the share of Liberal Democrats affiliation increases. An inverse relation with stronger magnitude is to be observed for the UKIP. In underrepresented parliament constituencies the vote share to leave the EU was relatively low but strongly increases as the affiliation to the UKIP grows. At around 20% representation of the UKIP in the parliament constituencies the vote shares were up to 75%. This finding should not come as a surprise, as the main campaign positions of the UKIP was to be independent of the EU whereas the Liberal Democrats campaigned to stay.

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